Rank	Region Name	Value
1	Russia	15%
2	Belarus	22%
3	Iceland	25%
4	Norway	28%
5	Sweden	30%
6	France	32%
7	Denmark	34%
8	Finland	36%
9	Romania	38%
10	United Kingdom	40%
11	Switzerland	41%
12	Netherlands	42%
13	Germany	44%
14	Hungary	45%
15	Austria	46%
16	Poland	48%
17	Czech Republic	50%
18	Lithuania	51%
19	Latvia	52%
20	Slovakia	53%
21	Estonia	54%
22	Slovenia	55%
23	Bulgaria	57%
24	Croatia	59%
25	Spain	61%
26	Belgium	63%
27	Portugal	65%
28	Serbia	66%
29	Italy	68%
30	Ireland	70%
31	Greece	72%
32	Luxembourg	73%
33	Macedonia	74%
34	Montenegro	75%
35	Kosovo	76%
36	Albania	77%
37	Bosnia and Herzegovina	79%
38	Ukraine	81%
39	Moldova	83%

The 2026 Iran war poses a severe stress test for European gas markets.

In just a few weeks, wholesale benchmarks surged by over 60 percent as Qatari LNG supplies ceased and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz strained global supply chains.

However, the data indicate that the impact is not uniformly felt across the board.

Nations at the top of the ranking managed to absorb the shock with minimal cost pass-through to consumers, while those at the bottom faced catastrophic price increases.

This ranking highlights the existence of structural winners and losers, rather than mere temporary fluctuations.

It demonstrates that domestic leverage and policy flexibility provide far greater protection for economies than the rhetoric of diversification ever could.

Producers and Policy Experts Lead the Upper Tier

The top ten ranks are predominantly occupied by countries that either produce gas or exercise strict control over supply.

Russia and Belarus are at the forefront, as state management keeps domestic prices shielded from the chaos of spot markets. Norway closely follows as the leading pipeline supplier to Europe.

These producers set the terms of trade rather than scrambling for cargoes.

Nordic countries such as Sweden, Denmark, and Finland also feature prominently due to their low gas dependency, strong renewable energy sources, and fiscal measures that mitigate retail price increases.

France strategically positions itself in sixth place, thanks to its nuclear energy infrastructure, which limits reliance on gas, while long-term contracts and targeted subsidies help minimize the impact on households.

Romania completes the group with domestic production that meets nearly all of its energy needs.

These top performers excel because they choose not to cede price-setting to the unpredictable LNG market.

Instead, they prioritize long-term sovereignty over short-term market signals.

Central Europe Achieves a Delicate Equilibrium

The countries ranked from 11 to 22 create a Central European coalition characterized by a blend of moderate diversification and assertive intervention.

Germany, Hungary, and Austria are included in this group due to their implementation of rapid VAT reductions, excise tax relief, and price controls, which have mitigated the impact of imported LNG.

Following them are Poland, the Baltic states, and the Visegrad nations.

These countries established terminals and storage facilities post-2022, but still depend on Norwegian gas supplies and US shipments.

Their mid-tier ranking indicates a successful strategy of layering policy safeguards over existing infrastructure.

While they have managed to avoid the most severe consequences, they cannot claim complete immunity.

This cluster demonstrates that reactive strategies are effective only when they are supported by established relationships with reliable suppliers.

Southern and Southeastern Europe Bear the Burden of Import Reliance

The lower rankings reveal the price of structural weaknesses.

Italy, Ireland, Greece, and the Iberian countries are grouped in the high-60s to low-70s due to their significant gas consumption for electricity and heating, which exacerbates the impact of every increase in wholesale prices.

Their LNG terminals receive spot shipments that fluctuate dramatically during disruptions in Qatar or the Strait of Hormuz.

Countries in Southeastern Europe, starting with Croatia, experience even greater challenges.

Limited storage capacity, constrained fiscal resources, and outdated pipeline connections leave them vulnerable. Moldova and Ukraine are at the very bottom of the rankings.

Years of dependence on imports without adequate safeguards have transformed a global crisis into a national disaster. These nations are not lacking in effort; they lack bargaining power.

Counterintuitive Standouts Uncover Concealed Strengths

Belarus, securing the second position, is seen as unexpected by many. The geopolitical tensions imply vulnerability, yet its integration with Russian supply chains ensures price stability that no Western market can rival.

Iceland’s third-place ranking challenges assumptions about island nations.

Its minimal reliance on gas and dominance in geothermal energy provide complete insulation.

These anomalies underscore the fundamental truth of the table: control is more advantageous than connectivity.

High Rankings Encounter Fiscal Trade-offs While Low Rankings Struggle with Inertia

Leaders incur costs for resilience. Hungary’s price cap and France’s subsidies maintain consumer prices but put pressure on budgets already strained by previous crises.

Germany’s relief initiatives offer similar protection but hinder green investments.

These countries exchange fiscal well-being for social stability. Conversely, nations at the bottom face a more severe limitation.

Persistent reliance on imports and inadequate storage capacity prevent them from mitigating future shocks.

Even with aggressive diversification efforts, they cannot easily overcome geographical and scale disadvantages.

Southeastern Europe cannot instantly replicate Norway’s reserves or France’s nuclear capabilities.

Persistent Trajectories Pose Risks of Fragmentation

If the current trends continue, Europe will divide into those with energy resources and those without.

Leading regions are confidently advancing their decarbonization efforts. In contrast, struggling regions face energy poverty, industrial decline, and political unrest.

The situation calls for immediate action. Europe needs to boost domestic production wherever possible, implement storage requirements universally, and synchronize subsidies to avoid detrimental competition among nations.

The shock from the Iran war is not an isolated incident. It represents the new reality for a continent still reliant on imported energy sources.

Countries that absorbed the lessons of 2022 are now prospering. Those who viewed it as a temporary crisis are currently facing difficulties. The rankings provide no space for denial.