State wise Recession probability in US States

Rank	Region Name	Values
1	Texas	10%
2	Florida	12%
3	Kentucky	15%
4	Utah	18%
5	Idaho	20%
6	South Carolina	22%
7	Oklahoma	25%
8	Alabama	28%
9	Indiana	30%
10	Nebraska	32%
11	Louisiana	35%
12	North Dakota	38%
13	Pennsylvania	40%
14	Arizona	42%
15	Wisconsin	45%
16	Tennessee	50%
17	North Carolina	52%
18	Ohio	55%
19	Missouri	58%
20	Virginia	60%
21	Nevada	62%
22	Arkansas	65%
23	Colorado	68%
24	New Mexico	70%
25	Alaska	72%
26	Hawaii	75%
27	California	78%
28	New York	80%
29	Wyoming	85%
30	Montana	85%
31	Minnesota	87%
32	Mississippi	87%
33	Kansas	88%
34	Massachusetts	88%
35	Washington	90%
36	Georgia	90%
37	New Hampshire	92%
38	Maryland	92%
39	Rhode Island	93%
40	Illinois	93%
41	Delaware	94%
42	Oregon	94%
43	Connecticut	95%
44	South Dakota	95%
45	New Jersey	96%
46	Maine	96%
47	Iowa	97%
48	West Virginia	97%
49	Michigan	98%
50	Vermont	98%
51	District of Columbia	99%

Analysts project the likelihood of recessions across U.S. states for 2025, showing considerable differences.

According to data from Moody’s Analytics, 16 states are classified as having a low risk of under 50%, while several others exhibit moderate risk near that mark, and 23 states are identified as having a high risk exceeding 80%.

Experts categorize states based on their estimated chances of entering or worsening a recession, from the least to the most likely.

Regions with strong energy sectors and population growth demonstrate resilience, whereas those reliant on manufacturing and facing high costs are more susceptible to economic downturns.

These national trends effectively obscure the distinct regional disparities.

Geographic Distribution of Risk Levels

States classified as low-risk are primarily found in the South and regions abundant in energy resources.

Texas stands out with the lowest risk probability at 10%, attributed to its diverse growth across oil, technology, and an influx of migrants.

Following closely is Florida, where tourism and demand from retirees help maintain low unemployment rates.

Kentucky and Utah are experiencing benefits from a resurgence in manufacturing and the expansion of technology sectors.

These regions report job growth and income increases that surpass national averages.

The rise in population is driving growth in housing and service industries, which acts as a buffer against economic slowdowns.

Conversely, high-risk states are predominantly located in the Northeast, Midwest, and certain areas in the West.

Michigan is approaching a 98% risk probability, largely due to challenges faced by the automotive industry stemming from trade tariffs and supply chain disruptions.

Illinois and Massachusetts are contending with declines in industrial sectors and high living expenses that are limiting consumer spending.

Georgia is experiencing weaknesses in retail, coupled with an increase in loan delinquencies. Many of these states are reporting quarterly GDP growth rates below 1%, alongside rising unemployment figures.

Factors Influencing Varied Risks

Trade regulations increase the likelihood of risks in states reliant on exports. Tariffs raise production costs for manufacturers located in the Midwest and South, which diminishes their competitive edge.

Limitations on immigration restrict the availability of labor in sectors such as construction and agriculture, which indirectly heightens risks in varied economies.

Ongoing elevated interest rates hinder housing market activity across the country, although states with high living costs along the coast experience more significant declines in permit approvals.

Energy self-sufficiency reduces risks for states that produce energy. Texas and Oklahoma capitalize on stable oil prices to generate revenue and create jobs.

Migration trends are shifting growth towards the southern regions, where affordable housing draws in both workers and businesses. Economic diversification enables expanding states to effectively balance their sectors.

The national GDP saw a recovery to 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, yet disparities among states remain.

Low-risk states contribute significantly to this growth, counteracting the negative impacts from high-risk regions.

Analysts observe that economic downturns in major states like California or New York could elevate national risk probabilities due to their considerable shares of GDP.

Wider Economic Consequences

In states with a high likelihood of economic downturn, residents face stagnant wages and job losses in at-risk sectors. Conversely, low-risk regions draw investments in healthcare, energy, and various services.

Policymakers are contemplating targeted assistance for struggling areas through training initiatives or financial incentives. Companies are focusing on growth in resilient states where demand remains stable.

Experts forecast these probabilities by analyzing indicators such as employment patterns, income statistics, and delinquency rates.

The differences reveal both structural strengths and weaknesses across different regions.

Continued growth in low-risk states helps the nation avoid a complete recession, yet vulnerabilities persist if external shocks occur.

Source

• Fortune. (2025, October 24). These 2 states will determine if the U.S. slips into a recession while one more enters the danger zone, top economist says. https://fortune.com/2025/10/24/recession-warning-state-economies-california-new-york-michigan-inflation-trump-tariffs-immigration-ai-boom/
• Economics Insider. (2025, December 1). Which U.S. states are currently in recession in 2025? https://economicsinsider.com/which-us-states-are-in-recession/