Below Replacement Level: Mapping America’s Shifting Birth Rates in 2025

Average Child birth per women in USA

Rank	Region name	Values (children per woman)
1	South Dakota	2.01
2	Utah	1.92
3	Nebraska	1.90
4	Alaska	1.89
5	North Dakota	1.88
6	Texas	1.81
7	Idaho	1.78
8	Kansas	1.75
9	Oklahoma	1.72
10	Kentucky	1.70
11	Louisiana	1.69
12	Arkansas	1.68
13	Indiana	1.67
14	Missouri	1.66
15	Alabama	1.65
16	Mississippi	1.64
17	Tennessee	1.63
18	Iowa	1.62
19	Montana	1.61
20	Wyoming	1.60
21	Arizona	1.59
22	South Carolina	1.58
23	Georgia	1.57
24	West Virginia	1.56
25	Ohio	1.55
26	Minnesota	1.54
27	Nevada	1.53
28	North Carolina	1.52
29	Wisconsin	1.51
30	Michigan	1.50
31	Florida	1.49
32	Illinois	1.48
33	New Mexico	1.47
34	Pennsylvania	1.46
35	Virginia	1.45
36	Colorado	1.44
37	Hawaii	1.43
38	New Jersey	1.42
39	California	1.41
40	Maryland	1.40
41	New York	1.39
42	Washington	1.38
43	Connecticut	1.37
44	Delaware	1.36
45	Maine	1.35
46	Massachusetts	1.34
47	New Hampshire	1.33
48	Oregon	1.32
49	Rhode Island	1.31
50	District of Columbia	1.30
51	Vermont	1.29

The total fertility rates across U.S. states for 2025 reveal considerable differences, with estimates derived from recent trends and 2024 data suggesting a national average of approximately 1.60 children per woman.

Elevated rates are primarily found in rural and conservative states, whereas urban and coastal regions display lower numbers.

Experts view this statistic as the average number of children a woman is expected to have throughout her lifetime based on existing patterns. Various cultural, economic, and demographic influences contribute to these regional disparities.

Regional Patterns and Influencing Factors

South Dakota ranks highest with an average of 2.01 children per woman.

The state’s strong family values, rural lifestyles, and a younger demographic contribute to higher birth rates in Plains states such as Nebraska, North Dakota, and Utah.

Utah, in particular, benefits from a significant Mormon population that emphasizes larger families. The availability of affordable housing and reduced urban pressures enable couples to start families earlier.

Texas closely follows with a rate of 1.81, primarily due to its large Hispanic community, which traditionally exhibits higher fertility rates. Immigration also introduces new, younger families into the state.

Similar trends can be observed in states like Idaho, Kansas, and Oklahoma, where agricultural economies and cultural norms support larger households.

Many Southern states rank prominently in this context. Kentucky, Louisiana, and Arkansas show fertility rates exceeding 1.68. Historical traditions, religious influences, and demographic factors are crucial in these areas.

Economic advancements in these regions facilitate family growth, despite challenges such as elevated poverty levels in certain areas.

Mid-range states like Indiana, Missouri, and Alabama report fertility rates between 1.65 and 1.67. These states exhibit a blend of urban development and rural heritage, resulting in a balanced yet declining fertility trend.

In contrast, the Northeast and West Coast states experience lower fertility rates. Vermont has the lowest rate at 1.29, with Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire following closely.

High levels of educational attainment often lead women to postpone or forgo childbearing in favor of career advancement. The high costs of childcare and housing further exacerbate these delays.

California, New York, and Washington state maintain rates below 1.42. The dense urban settings of cities like Los Angeles, New York City, and Seattle create financial pressures.

The necessity for dual incomes and progressive societal values often shift priorities towards smaller families or opting out of parenthood altogether.

Similar patterns are evident in Colorado, Maryland, and Oregon, where professional opportunities draw in ambitious individuals who choose to delay starting families.

Economic and Social Contexts Influencing 2025 Forecasts

The national total fertility rate is projected to be around 1.60 in 2025, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 necessary for maintaining population stability without immigration.

Although there were slight fluctuations in 2024, long-term declines continue due to factors such as delayed marriage, increased education, and economic uncertainties.

Immigration contributes to growth in populous states like Texas and Florida, concealing declines among native-born populations. In red states, cultural conservatism is associated with higher fertility rates, as communities promote early family formation.

Access to education and contraception enhances personal choices, especially in blue states where individualism is more prominent. Post-Dobbs abortion restrictions differ across states, but overall trends indicate a minimal reversal in fertility declines.

The high cost of living discourages families from settling in low-fertility states. Young adults are relocating to more affordable regions, reinforcing existing trends in the Midwest and South.

Aging populations pose challenges for regions with low fertility rates. Without policy interventions, there will be a decline in school enrollments and labor forces. Conversely, high-fertility states are gaining youthful populations but must address infrastructure needs.

Projections suggest stability through 2025, with possible enhancements from family-oriented policies such as tax credits or expanded leave. However, structural challenges like debt and housing continue to act as obstacles.

Variations among states underscore the diverse experiences of American families.

Leaders are debating incentives to increase fertility rates, while others focus on improving quality of life. Fertility rates will impact the future size of the workforce, economic productivity, and the sustainability of social programs.

Source

• World Population Review. (2025). Birth rate by state 2025. https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/birth-rate-by-state